That Strategic Counsel poll reports a Liberal surge that is fueled by post-convention hype. It does not represent a trend in any way.

Sure, the Globe and Mail is reporting that 62% of Quebec liberals are reportedly happy with their party’s choice. It would be suicidal for them not to do so! If you’re a Liberal expressing concerns over the leader choice of your party, OF COURSE you’re not going to go ahead two days after the convention and break the faked “feeling of unity” of your “revamped” party by saying you oppose the new leader!

Plus, I know from my International Relations professor (although he himself did support Dion as leader) here at Bishop’s University, who is president of the Liberal association in the Compton-Stanstead riding and fresh back from the convention that the Québec Liberal delegates reportedly made a hell of a face when they heard the election results two days ago. They were NOT happy to say the least. They know Dion is pretty much toast in Québec.

That same Globe and Mail article here you mentioned also reflects a similar point of view:

“He [Dion] must also seek to overcome doubts about his ability to win an election, especially in Quebec, where he has the image of a hard-line federalist, and members of his own party are nervous about his voter appeal.”

Also, consider the following part of the same article:

“Across Canada, 26 per cent said they would be less likely to vote Liberal now that Mr. Dion is leader, and 20 per cent said they would be more likely; 47 per cent said their vote would be unaffected.”

I don’t know about you, but I personally believe that’s a pickup (albeit small) for Harper’s Conservatives.

Add to that the fact that some prominent Québec MPs will probably be considering a change of career now that Dion is leader (Jean Lapierre, MP for Outremont, totally and openly hates Dion’s guts) and one of them is ALREADY talking about the next leadership race (Denis Coderre) and you have a pretty disunited Liberal party on your hands, which will most likely be unable to get any more MPs elected in Québec, and pretty much everywhere else except of course Ontario.

That is my basis for saying Harper will get a majority. And remember, there’s such a thing as peaking too soon.

But I believe we can hardly call Dion’s latest surge in polls a “peak” at all.

Time will obviously tell, but I can’t say things are not going good for Conservatives.

Want to see yet another example of how Dion is disliked in Québec?

Click here.

This was originally drawn by Serge Chapleau in 1997, a famous cartoonist in Québec now working for Le Journal de Montréal. That French caption reads as follows in English: “No Mr. Dion, it’s not a delusion, people REALLY do hate you!”

There’s also the complete collection on Stéphane Dion at the McCord Museum in Montréal.

Hilarious…

I especially like how your predictions for the next election are in no way impeded by reality! http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20061204.LIBSFRONT04/TPStory/National

FYI: Winning a majority in Alberta only makes you a majority government in a provincial election.